In a newly released report, IndexBox projects that the European Union’s market for non-cellular polyethylene plates, sheets, films, foils, and strips will see steady growth over the next decade. The market is expected to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.7% in volume and 1.8% in value from 2024 to 2035, driven by an increasing demand for these products across various sectors.
Market Forecast
With a robust demand for non-cellular polyethylene products, the European Union is poised for a notable expansion in consumption. By 2035, the volume of non-cellular polyethylene consumed is projected to reach 4.9 million tons, while the market value is anticipated to rise to approximately $16.4 billion, calculated based on nominal wholesale prices.
Consumption Trends
Sharp Increase in Consumption
In 2024, the consumption of non-cellular polyethylene films in the EU surged by 14%, hitting 4.6 million tons. This figure marks a significant increase from 2023, rebounding from a previous trend that showed moderate annual growth of 1.2% from 2013 to 2024, despite some fluctuations.
The revenue generated from this sector reached $13.5 billion in 2024, a staggering 31% rise from the previous year. This revenue excludes logistics costs, retail marketing expenses, and retailers’ margins, which are factored into the final consumer price.
Country-Specific Consumption
In 2024, the highest consumption levels were recorded in France (696,000 tons), Germany (691,000 tons), and Spain (594,000 tons), collectively accounting for 43% of total EU consumption. Other significant contributors included Sweden, Italy, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Portugal, and Austria, which made up an additional 41%.
Notably, Sweden experienced the most significant growth in consumption among the leading countries, reaching a CAGR of 8.1%. In terms of market value, Germany led with $2.2 billion, followed closely by France at $2.1 billion and Sweden at $1.8 billion.
Per Capita Consumption
Per capita consumption of polyethylene films was highest in Sweden, averaging 49 kg per person in 2024, compared to global averages of 10 kg per person. Belgium and Portugal each exhibited per capita rates of 18 kg, while Austria recorded 14 kg. Sweden’s annual per capita consumption saw an impressive growth rate of 7.2%, indicating a strong market demand.
Production Insights
Production Recovery
Following two years of decline, the production of non-cellular polyethylene films, sheets, foils, and strips rose to 4.6 million tons in 2024, a 14% increase from the previous year. The production trend remained relatively stable during this period, with peaks reaching 5.8 million tons in 2021.
The estimated value of non-cellular polyethylene film production surged to $14.7 billion in 2024, though it had peaked at $19.1 billion in 2022.
Leading Production Countries
Germany was the top producer in 2024, generating 887,000 tons, followed by Spain at 616,000 tons and France at 579,000 tons. Together, these countries contributed to nearly 45% of the total production within the EU. Sweden showed the most remarkable production growth with a CAGR of 6.8% over the review period.
Import and Export Dynamics
Import Trends
In 2024, imports of non-cellular polyethylene films into the EU fell by 16.9%, totaling 2.1 million tons, marking the second consecutive year of decline after a decade of growth. Despite this decrease, the overall trend has remained relatively stable over the years.
The total value of imports dropped significantly to $6 billion in 2024, down from a peak of $8.7 billion in 2022. Major importing countries included Germany at 274,000 tons, France at 252,000 tons, and Spain at 228,000 tons.
Export Trends
In terms of exports, the EU saw a decrease of 16.3% in non-cellular polyethylene shipments to 2.2 million tons in 2024, continuing a downward trend for three consecutive years. The value of these exports contracted to $7.1 billion in 2024.
Germany remained the largest exporter, contributing 471,000 tons, while Spain, Italy, and Poland followed with significantly lower volumes. Germany’s export value was also the highest at $1.7 billion.
Market Prices
Import and Export Prices
In 2024, import prices across the EU averaged $2,807 per ton, demonstrating a slight decline of 4.9% from the previous year. Variability was noted among major importing countries, with Poland recording the highest import price at $3,324 per ton.
Conversely, export prices averaged $3,215 per ton in 2024, down 3.2% from 2023. The highest export prices were noted from exporters in the Netherlands, with $3,815 per ton, while Croatia recorded the lowest at $1,779 per ton.
The overall market for non-cellular polyethylene in the EU suggests a complex landscape of growth, consumption, and production challenges that will likely evolve as demand continues to shift.
