The ethylene polymer bag market in the United Kingdom is poised for a modest recovery, with projections indicating a slight increase in volume and value by 2035. Following years of decline since peaking in 2013, the market is expected to see consumption rise to 453,000 tons and a market value of $1.8 billion. This information comes from a recent report by IndexBox, focusing on market analysis and future forecasts of the sector.

Market Trends and Forecast

According to the report, the UK ethylene polymer bag market is anticipated to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.1% in volume until 2035, incrementally increasing to 453,000 tons. In terms of value, the market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 0.5%, reaching approximately $1.8 billion by 2035. This evolution indicates a fresh wave of demand for ethylene polymer bags, marking a significant shift after years of decrease.

In 2024, consumption rose for the first time since 2020, reaching 446,000 tons, despite a sharp decline in domestic production. The report highlights that domestic production fell to 207,000 tons from a peak of 2.7 million tons in 2013. Meanwhile, imports surged to 272,000 tons, primarily from Turkey, Germany, and Vietnam, with exports increasing modestly, primarily going to Ireland.

Consumption Dynamics

In 2024, the consumption of sacks and bags of polymers of ethylene saw a slight uptick of 0.5%, closing at 446,000 tons, effectively ending a three-year declining pattern. This growth was particularly notable, considering consumption had previously peaked at 2.9 million tons in 2013. The highest annual increase occurred in 2018, when consumption jumped by 9.7%.

In value terms, the UK ethylene polymer bag market slightly decreased to $1.7 billion in 2024, representing a decline of 1.6% compared to the prior year. This figure concerns the total revenues from producers and importers but does not account for logistics costs or retailer margins.

Domestic Production Trends

The UK’s production of sacks and bags of polymers of ethylene declined to 207,000 tons in 2024, holding steady in contrast to the previous year’s figures. The production landscape experienced dramatic downsizing from its peak of 2.7 million tons in 2013. The most significant annual growth occurred in 2017, with a 17% increase from the prior year, yet the overall trend has been towards contraction.

From a value perspective, the production of ethylene polymer bags saw a slight decline to approximately $1.3 billion based on export pricing in 2024. This downturn highlights the sector’s challenges, especially considering the peak value of $17 billion reached in 2013.

Import Patterns

The UK witnessed a rebound in imports of sacks and bags of polymers of ethylene, totaling 272,000 tons in 2024, marking the first increase since 2020. This change signals the end of a three-year decline. Despite rising in 2024, imports displayed a relatively stagnant growth trajectory overall.

Notably, Turkey, Germany, and Vietnam emerged as the primary sources for UK imports, collectively accounting for over half of imported bags. Turkey alone shipped 64,000 tons, while Germany and Vietnam contributed 43,000 and 39,000 tons, respectively. Additionally, import values decreased to $652 million in 2024, reflecting a generally flat import pattern over the years.

Key Suppliers and Their Impact

For UK ethylene polymer bag imports, Turkey, Germany, and Vietnam continue to dominate the market, with Turkey showing impressive growth with a CAGR of 21.7% from 2013 to 2024. In terms of value, Germany remains the top supplier, generating $114 million in sales, followed closely by Turkey at $106 million and China at $101 million.

Import prices averaged $2,396 per ton in 2024—down 6.2% from the previous year—indicating fluctuations influenced by various factors. France had the highest average price at $3,490 per ton, while Turkey provided the most cost-effective bags at $1,659 per ton.

Export Landscape

In 2024, UK exports of ethylene polymer bags showed modest growth, reaching 33,000 tons—a 3.4% increase from the year before. Despite this uptick, the overall trend in exports has been subdued, particularly after peaking at 40,000 tons in 2016.

In terms of value, exported products decreased to $186 million in 2024, underscoring a noticeable slump from higher values recorded in 2020. Ireland remains the biggest market for UK exports of ethylene polymer bags, importing 13,000 tons and accounting for 41% of total exports.

The average export price was recorded at $5,667 per ton in 2024, which reflects a decline of 10.5% compared to the previous year. There exists notable variability in prices, with the United States commanding the highest average price of $13,363 per ton, while Lithuania recorded among the lowest at $1,879 per ton.

Summary

Overall, the UK ethylene polymer bag market reflects a complex landscape of decline followed by signs of gradual recovery. While domestic production remains low, increased imports and slight upticks in consumption and exports suggest potential stabilization in the upcoming years. The projected market growth supports a cautious but hopeful outlook as industry dynamics evolve in response to changing consumer demand and global trade patterns.